A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
